All goes to building the brand of an author, to push product on the back of established reputation.
Chief problem - not only is the market niche, but the community in which one can even build reputation is niche. This is why I'd be loathe to market to the OSR community rather than the D&D community (of which OSR is a subset) - there's simply a much larger audience that's being ignored if you push yourself only onto OSR blogs and forums and whatnot.
This is a bit of what I was getting into with Malrex and Prince of Nothing in the
review comments.
As you said, DP: niche market, 10 people and/or maybe 40 people. Melan talks on his blog at about 200 copies for a print run being about right.
Can we all stipulate, for the sake of argument, that there is not much money to be made here?
Also, as Malrex rightly points out, it takes quite a bit of cash to make a professional looking product.
Something doesn't jive in this equation.
What it comes back to for me is this ---
What is your goal?
If it's to get rich (or even support yourself as a game designer), you are probably out of luck. Many have tried and failed---so odds are against you. This hobby has a long history (going back to its roots) of commerce and business endeavors tearing the heart out of it. For all the millions D&D once made, and might even be making for WotC now, you will be hard-pressed to make a living off of it. The market is super-saturated, etc.
That makes it a hobby for most, right? And we are often willing to sink an illogical amount of cash into our hobbies. That includes buying too much stuff we'll never use as well as investing in kickstarters for things we'd like to see made---
that otherwise are not profitable.
But it's our hobby. It makes us all happy, so that's totally cool.
Again...
What is your goal?
Here are some options:
(a) the joy of dabbling at being an entrepreneur---organizing a collaboration of talent, seeing a project come to life
(b) just seeing something of yours "in print" (aka "Look what I did!", Vanity Project)
(c) garnering recognition (aka "What do others think of me now?", "Street Cred")
(d) creating art (aka "What am I capable of making?" and "Is it beautiful/good?")
If it's (a), you need to spend money to make money---and balancing the books and/or making a profit is a measure of your success. It's the organization you are building that comes first, and the reward is the "thrill of the hunt". But ultimately what you are "hunting" is dollars.
If it's (b), you'll probably publish some overpriced half-arsed dreck that Bryce will rip apart. After your initial effort, you'll probably stop. Or maybe you and your friends don't care what Bryce or others say, cause you "did it!" (5 stars!) and now on to something else. Relatively low investment in time and money.
If it's (c), you are in the least enviable position because...well...this is the internet. Some will like. Some will hate. It probably will be an emotional roller-coaster. You are likely to be more inclined to invest time than money.
If it's (d), you will chase the muse through the gates of hell and back without much thought of consequences (or cost, e.g. hiring an editor). You will also probably fall short of your lofty ideals and maybe try again a few more times if you are pig-headed. Sales/recovering-costs is a secondary consideration because you already
know you are hunting Snark. Lastly, you will want to show others because you are so excited when you are done. (Heard a radio show that mentioned how Paul McCartney likes to play his new albums to all his friends whenever they drop by his studio. Joy of creation, man---he doesn't need the money or the cred.)
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IMO option (a) or (b) has the best chance at quantity, but (d) has the best chance of quality---something that
lasts. There are precious few of those in the scope of written adventures (and I think a lot have EGG's name on them....just because he 'got' D&D better than most and consumed his life in the pursuit of it. However, big-business eventually derailed him---which is an often-repeated tale in human endeavors. Pioneers first, then the profiteers.)
Sometimes a mixture of a talented business-savvy individuals teams up with a prolific creative talent and the two crank out the hits. It's magical when that happens, but so rare.
With D&D, I think the proverbial Bottom Line is just too low. That's why (for the
amatuer) I advocate focusing on creativity and quality. Try to make something great. Enjoy the accolades if you succeed, and what you learned even if you don't. Focus on that, as opposed to the business-side of the equation because it has a greater probability of working out well for you. Have your head in the right place. It's a hobby. It's a gift-economy. The dollars are too small, so chase reputation (in small circles) and self-satisfaction in the process of creation instead. If your dream is to make something physically pretty, minimize consumer backlash via a Patreon/Kickstarter, but eventually maximize distribution (and semi-permanence) by giving away via PWYW for a zero-cost-to-distribute PDF. For print, by all means charge what it costs---it's only fair. But remember,
profit implies an unequal exchange of goods: you got more out than you put in to it. Life has a funny, round-about way of rewarding people who are selflessly devoted to something we can all use and appreciate---it may open some doors to a professional gig, or it may just give you a sense of belonging to something larger than yourself. Who knows? Have you tried? What is the source of that voice egging you to slap a price tag on your work? At least "Know Thyself".
Those are my thoughts---heavily discounted by the fact that I've never published a D&D product.
(Probably should have said that up front and saved the casual reader some time. Oh well!)